000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042213
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W S OF
15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE
ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH. THIS IS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OFF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N81W TO 11N89W TO
12N97W TO 10N103W TO 13N121W TO 10N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 102W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NW THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN W OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 20N130W. THIS IS PROVIDING A BELT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N THAT IS BOTH
AIDING MODEST CONVECTION...IS ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANYTHING ORGANIZED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SURFACE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N97W. WITH
THE EXCEPT OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN S TO SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL
WINDS S OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE LOW
PRES MOVES SLOWLY WEST. FURTHER NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS
CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR 20N113W WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ON THE NW SIDE
OF THIS LOW...AND IS CONTINUES TO SHOW UP NICELY ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN LIMITED AND NO REORGANIZATION
IS LIKELY AS THE FEATURE MOVES NW. TO THE NORTH...QUIKSCAT DID
SHOW A HINT OF FRESH NLY WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA ON THE
EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS
AND THE WINDS AROUND THE REMNANT OF DOUGLAS WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
W OF 110W...THE WELL-DEFINED REMNANTS OF BORIS ARE CENTERED NEAR
17N132W. WHILE THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED CONTINUED 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS MAINLY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO
BE UP TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW SHIFTS WEST
TO 140W BY SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF BORIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE E OF 130W AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...BUT AS YET THIS
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO ENHANCE ANY NOTABLE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
$$
CHRISTENSEN |
